Stiff Upper Lip

If you don't buy into the whole doom-and-gloom thing, I recommend you check out the Campaign Spot over at National Review, where the incomparable Jim Geraghty has posted an update from a mysterious GOP operative known only as "Obi-Wan Kenobi."

Says Obi:

So, if the polling community is basically right in their turnout models, this is looking like '64 — a nightmare scenario for the GOP. But if they are off to any significant degree, the state polls seen today (even though some of them favor a high Dem turnout model) make this a very different race. And what about the outlier polls in Pennsylvania and even one in Minnesota showing a close race?

I'm not sold on Minnesota being in play. But if the polls really are overestimating the Democratic advantage, then I guess everything really does go right out the window. A lot of those polls are giving the Dems a +8%, +10% advantage in turnout. If that doesn't happen--well, we'll see.

I don't think the Democratic advantage will be that large. There'll still be some college students too lazy or too hungover to make the trip down to their polling place. I say this as a college student myself. But, still speaking as a college students...those Obama people really are fired up. I think we're going to see record numbers of the 18-29ers turning out.