Election Predictions

First, before I do anything else, let me make a couple predictions. This will be to prove to future readers--assuming I get any--that I made these calls before the election. Thus, they won't doubt my incredible accuracy.*

PRESIDENCY
ELECTORAL VOTE:
OBAMA: 311
MCCAIN: 227

POPULAR VOTE:
OBAMA: 52%
MCCAIN: 46%

SWING STATES:
OBAMA wins NV, NM, IA, OH, VA, CO, PA, NH
MCCAIN wins MO, FL, NC, GA, IN

Rough state of affairs, isn't it, when North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana are swing states?

SENATE
ALASKA: Mark Begich (D) defeats Ted Stevens (R); Dem pickup

COLORADO: Mark Udall (D) defeats Bob Schaffer (R): Dem pickup

GEORGIA: Saxby Chambliss (R) defeats Jim Martin (D): Rep retention

KENTUCKY: Mitch McConnell (R) defeats Bruce Lunsford (D); Rep retention

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen (D) defeats John Sununu (R); Dem pickup

NEW MEXICO: Tom Udall (D) defeats Steve Pearce (R); Dem pickup

NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagan (D) defeats Elizabeth Dole (R); Dem pickup

MINNESOTA: Norm Coleman (R) defeats Al Franken (D); Rep retention

MISSISSIPPI: Roger Wicker (R) defeats Ronnie Musgrove (D); Rep retention

OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) defeats Gordon Smith (R); Dem pickup

VIRGINIA: Mark Warner (D) defeats Jim Gilmore (R); Dem pickup

FINAL: Dems +7, for a Senate majority of 58-42, give or take a Joe Lieberman

Those races in Oregon and North Carolina really are amazing. Hagan especially was thought to be running for the position of Official Sacrificial Lamb. She was supposed to get mauled by Dole. Creamed. Annihilated. McGovernated. And now, she's on the verge of becoming a US Senator. Did I mention it's a really bad time to be a Republican.

All I can say is, if the GOP can't take back a few of this seats six years down the road, maybe it's time to bring back the Whig Party.

HOUSE
Hoo boy. I've always considered myself a political junkie, but I don't have the willpower to pick EVERY House race. So I'll limit myself to a vague guess.

DEMS pick up 35 seats
REPS pick up 3 seats
FINAL: Dems +32, for a Democratic majority of 268-167

GOVERNORSHIPS
Not too much going on here--only North Carolina and Washington are competitive, though both of those are barnburners.

NORTH CAROLINA: Bev Perdue (D) defeats Pat McCrory (R); Dem retention

WASHINGTON: Christine Gregoire (D) defeats Dino Rossi (R); Dem retention

BEST PICTURE
Sorry, I'm getting ahead of myself.

As you can tell, I'm not too sanguine on the GOP's chances right now. Even under the very, very best case scenario, we're going to lose at least 5 Senate seats and two dozen House seats. It's going to be a long, hard rebuilding process. The GOP is going to be a regional party--Southerners only!--for at least the next two years.

And while I want to believe, I just don't think McCain can pull it off. If he were within 3-4% in the polls--maybe. But he's down 7-10% in just about every poll, from Rasmussen to Fox to PPP to Gallup to Pew. I refuse to believe that every single pollster in America could be so criminally incompetent as to miss a last-minute McCain surge.

*Note: Accuracy might not actually be that accurate.