Though political junkies like myself are already droling over the prospect of an Arlen Specter-Chris Matthews matchup in the Pennsylvania Senate race, there's just one small issue. Specter might not even survive the primary:
Apparently paying a political price for his support of President Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan, longtime Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey 41 - 27 percent in a Republican primary for the 2010 Senate race, with 28 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The rule of political thumb holds that, if an incumbent polls below 50%, he's in trouble.
If he polls below 45%, he's in dire trouble.
If he polls below 40%, he can apply for a spot on the endangered species list.
And if, as in Specter's case, he's below 30%...well, let's just say he might as well get started on his memoirs, prospectively titled "To My Constituents--F*** You!"
I'm not writing Specter off, though, because I'm sure the NRSC is going to throw its full weight behind him. That was enough to drag Lincoln Chafee across the finish line in 2006. And look how well that turned out! For the Democrats, I mean.
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