NoVa Surprise

When solving a problem, my grandfather always told me, begin at the beginning. OK, my grandfather never actually said that. But it's still a good piece of advice.

The Republican Party's problem is clear. For the past few years the party has been hemorrhaging support among middle-class, moderate voters. The suburbs around southern and western cities--Denver, Phoenix, Raleigh, Orlando--used to vote reliably Republican. Now they've turned a toxic shade of blue.

If we were to try to pinpoint where this trend began, we ought to start in Virginia. Virginia voted for Obama in 2008 because the suburbs of northern Virginia, especially in Fairfax County, voted so heavily for the Democrats that they swamped Republican majorities elsewhere in the state.

That's why Republicans should take some encouragement in this story from the Washington Post:

The narrow victory in Tuesday's special election to succeed former Braddock District supervisor Sharon Bulova, who became chairman last month, heartened Republicans, especially those who have argued that a pragmatic, centrist candidate focused on neighborhood-level needs could win despite the Democratic tide that has overtaken Northern Virginia.

"Fairfax County is competitive again," said former congressman Tom Davis, a moderate Republican who often clashed with his party's conservative wing. The county's voters "are smart people. They want pragmatic leadership."

Does this mean Republicans can start wooing back all those white-collar office park workers they lost during the Bush years? Maybe not right away. Nothing in politics is instantaneous.

But John Cook's victory should teach two important lessons.

1. The GOP ruled Washington for so long it lost sight of local issues. It conceived everything in national terms and forgot how to listen to its constituents back home. Cook's victory proves that Tip O'Neill's adage never goes out of style--all politics really is local.

That means there will never be a GOP grand strategy. If Republicans want to return to relevance, they can't expect some think tank in Washington, DC to spit out a study on "The Perfect Way to Win Elections." Victory will come from the grassroots.

2. The other interesting thing is how similar Cook's strategy looks to George W. Bush's compassionate conservatism:

Cook is among those in the Virginia GOP who blame the party's slide in recent years on a misguided embrace of divisive social issues, including abortion, same-sex marriage and gun rights. The approach, they say, has allowed Democrats to lay claim to such day-to-day issues as transportation and education.

Granted, since GWB's term in office, "compassionate conservative" has become an obscenity, the same way "neoconservative" has been permanently stained.

But there's still an element of truth to Bush's strategy. He refused to concede any ground to the Democrats; he tackled issues like education with No Child Left Behind, and healthcare with his prescription drug plan.

Everyone giggles when they recall Bush saying "I'm a uniter, not a divider." It's a punchline. It's a joke. It's like saying "Mission Accomplished." Yet if Republicans want to win again in suburbs like Fairfax County, they really do have to work on their uniting skills.