2010

Never too early to start handicapping Senate races, is it? The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza takes a (very, very, very) early look at which incumbents might be sweating out the next cycle.

A few thoughts of my own:

1. I seriously doubt that Kansas will be competitive, even with Brownback's retirement. I think it'll be one of those seats--like Oklahoma in '04, or Tennessee in '06--where the Democrats recruit a great candidate, get close in the polls, and then get blown out on Election Day.

2. In a similar vein, I think that knocking off Harry Reid is a pipe dream for Republicans. Tom Daschle did go down in 2004, but that was in the most Republican-friendly cycle in recent history. And South Dakota's a lot more Republican than is Nevada.

3. I had forgotten about Kentucky! But I have to concur with Cillizza's judgment. Republicans will have to cross their fingers and hope that Jim Bunning either 1) wises up and decides not to run again or 2) goes completely bonkers and gets forced out of office. Neither one is a particularly pleasant prospect.